The  BCV  figures  are  beginning  to  be  released,  but  their  prolonged  absence  has  generated  “suspicions” among some economists.

By José Gregorio Yépez

Data  from  the  Central  Bank  of  Venezuela  (BCV)  indicate  that  the  Gross  Domestic  Product  (GDP)  of  Venezuela’s  public  sector  showed  a  negative  performance  in  the  first  quarter  of  2026, registering  -0.68% .

This  represents  a  significant  decline  compared  to  the  fourth  quarter  of  2025,  when  it  closed  at  9% .  The  gap  becomes  even  more  pronounced  when  compared  to  the  same  period  last  year,  when results were in positive territory at  10% .

Meanwhile,  the  private  sector  did  not  escape  the  impact  in  the  first  half  of  this  year  either.  It  showed  a  notable  slowdown,  recording  growth  of  3.52% ,  a  total  of  2.67  percentage  points  lower than the  6.19%  of the previous quarter.

Most Affected Sectors

A  review  of  BCV  data  shows  that  the  construction  sector  experienced  a  significant  drop  of  -18.30% .  This  contrasts  with  the  16.87%  growth  reported  by  the  central  bank  for  this  sector  at the end of 2025.

This  decline  has  been  linked  to  the  negative performance  of the  oil  sector,  which  as  a  whole  recorded -2.12 %  between January and March of this  year.

Another  sector  showing  a  notable  slowdown  is  mining,  which  grew  22.57%  in  the  fourth  quarter  of  2025,  while  consolidated  figures  for  the  first  half  of  2026  show  growth  of  only 1.86 % .

The  political  situation  that  emerged  after  January  3  impacted  national  economic  performance.  The only sector that showed strong growth was finance and insurance.

This  sector  grew  13.46% ,  more  than  seven  percentage  points  higher  than  the  previous  quarter’s 5.85 % .

Figures and Doubts

To  deepen  the  analysis  of  BCV  data,  we  consulted  economist  Manuel  Sutherland,  who  noted  that  the  first  relevant  point  is  that  “statistics  that  had  been  missing  for  many  years  are  finally  appearing,  which  suggests  that  the  Central  Bank,  the  National  Institute  of  Statistics  (INE),  or  the institutions handling economic data have the numbers but are not publishing them.”

The  economist  views  the  central  bank’s  figures  with  skepticism  and  states  that  “there  is  self-censorship and a willingness not to show the public what is happening.”

“An  institution  that  should  be  independent  and  autonomous  does  not  seem  to  be  so.  It  gives  the  impression  that,  in  some  way,  it  is  preventing  or  delaying  the  publication  of  results.  This  reduces  credibility  once  the  data  is  released,  because  it  does  not  explain  why  it  was  not  published on time,” Sutherland said.

He  added  that  the  results  “are  quite  at  odds  with  the  reality  perceived  by  people  living  in  Venezuela.”

From  a  strictly  technical  analytical  perspective,  he  clarified  that  “there  is  no  GDP  contraction,  as people say, but rather a reduction in the growth rate.”

“It  fell  by  66%.  It  is  one  third  of  the  previous  increase,  but  not  a  decline  per  se.  It  is  simply  lower growth,” he insisted.

He  explained that  the  decline  in  the  oil  sector is  related  to what  happened  on  January 3   and  subsequent changes, which he considers “normal.”

“The  0.68%  drop  in  the  public  sector  was  also  predictable.  It  was  expected  given  the  severity  of  sanctions  and  the  practical  blockade  at  the  beginning  of  the  year  and  end  of  the  previous  one,” the economist noted.

At this point, he again raised doubts.

He  pointed  out  that  BCV  data  show  that  public  sector  GDP  “grew  on  average  9.93%  quarter-on-quarter, which seems extremely exaggerated.”

“That implies a cumulative growth of more than 40%, which is quite striking.”

He  also  noted  that  BCV  figures  show  “a  nominal  GDP  growth  of  250%  from  the  first  quarter  of 2021 to now, which seems excessive.”

“This  would  make  us  wonder  why  wages  have  not  increased  if  the  economy  has  grown  so  much.

That  would  likely  be  the  most  extreme  growth  rate  in  the  world,  but  no  one  really  believes  it  is plausible,” Sutherland argued.

Construction Sector

Regarding the 18.30% decline in construction, the economist made several observations.

“A  contraction  of  18.30%  seems  quite  plausible  given  recent  political  events,  but  the  previous  growth reported by the BCV—above 15%—is quite unlikely,” he explained.

On  the  link  between  construction  and  employment,  he  said  there  is  “a  very  important  relationship  between  construction  GDP  and  the  number  of  workers  in  the  sector,  which  generates positive effects, but the problem is structural.”

From  his  perspective,  “the  economy  remains  constrained  and  tied  down.  It  continues  to  face  many obstacles deliberately imposed by the government, which prevent growth.”

“In  construction,  credit  is  essential.  No  one, unless you  are a  drug  trafficker—only  if  you  are  a  drug  trafficker—buys  a  house  with  a  bag  full  of  cash  dollars.  Normally,  people  would  buy  homes through mortgages,” he said.

He  added  that  “with  the  highest  bank  reserve  requirement  in  the  world  and  all  the  constraints  imposed on the financial system, that is impossible.”

Sutherland  noted  that  in  Venezuela,  “mortgage  loans  are  microscopic.  They  are  probably 5.7 % of what they were in 2011. They have practically disappeared.”

“In  these  conditions,  building  is  very  difficult,  very  expensive,  and  people  cannot  access  housing,” he concluded.

Finally,  he  stated  that  “in  that  sense,  practically  nothing  has  changed  after  January  3.  There  have  been  no  changes  in  economic,  monetary,  or  fiscal  policy,  and  everything  remains  more  or less the same.”