What Can Venezuela Do with the International Monetary Fund?

Economy Specials

The Daily Journal.-  The  recognition  by  the  multilateral  institution  opens  doors  for  Venezuela  to  emerge  from  its  economic crisis, but it also leaves many questions unanswered.

 José Gregorio Yépez

Mentioning  the  International  Monetary  Fund  (IMF)  frightens  some  people,  while  others  see  it  as  an  opportunity.  For  younger  generations,  it  is  probably  something  new,  unfamiliar  —  a  distant  name  for  something  that  exists,  without  really  knowing  what  it  does  or  what  it  has  to  do with the country.

 Some  may  remember  the  phrase  coined  in  the  late  1980s:  “the  claws  of  the  International  Monetary  Fund,”  which  many  blamed  for  creating  an  “economic  adjustment  package”  that  triggered the Caracazo.

 Indeed,  less  than  a  month  after  Carlos  Andrés  Pérez  took  office  for  his  second  term,  the  announcement  of  a  “Letter  of  Intent”  to  pursue  an  “Extended  Fund  Facility  Agreement”  with  the multilateral institution generated strong reactions.

 The  events  of  February  1989  were  not  sparked  by  the  implementation  of  the  measures  themselves;  merely  announcing  them  increased  public  anxiety,  leading  to  a  popular  uprising  that left victims and a mark on Venezuelan history.

 Debt? No!

 On  April  16,  the  IMF  announced  in  a  press  release  that  it  was  restoring  relations  with  Venezuela after they had been suspended since March 2019.

 From  that  moment,  a  new  scenario  opened  for  the  government  of  Delcy  Rodríguez,  along  with  many  questions:  “Are  we  going  back  to  the  claws  of  the  IMF?”  “Did  Chávez  not  once  say  Venezuela  would  leave  the  Fund?”  “Is  the  global  financial  system  reopening  for Venezuela?” “Are our financial problems over?”

 These  and  many  other  questions  are  circulating,  and  optimism  is  mixed  with  doubt.

 Skepticism has taken hold amid the events following January 3, 2026, in Venezuela.

In  Miraflores,  the  announcement  was  received  with  enthusiasm  and  as a  diplomatic  victory.  However,  Delcy  Rodríguez  quickly  stated  on  April  17  that  her  government  does  not  plan  to  pursue a debt program following the resumption of relations with the IMF.

 From  the  hardline  wing  of  the  ruling  party,  Diosdado  Cabello,  secretary  general  of  the  United  Socialist  Party  of  Venezuela  (PSUV)  and  Minister  of  Interior,  Justice  and  Peace,  ruled  out  “an IMF adjustment package.”

 Likewise,  on  his  program  Con  el  mazo  dando  on  April  23,  he  challenged  critics  of  the  renewed  relationship  with  the  multilateral  institution,  saying:  “If  any  of  those  so-called  intellectual  individuals  have  a  different  formula  to  recover  the  5  billion  dollars…  please  say  it. Don’t be selfish.”

 What Economists Say

 Macroeconomists  agree  that  this  is  an  important  signal  for  Venezuela  to  reintegrate  into  international  financial  markets.  IMF  recognition  is  a  key  credential  for  participation  in  that  system.

 Venezuela  currently  has  an  external  debt  estimated  between  $150  billion  and  $170  billion ,  depending  on  the  source,  and  its  renegotiation  is  a  cornerstone  for  enabling  new  financing  options for the country.

 Economist  and  professor  José  Guerra  argues  that  reopening  relations  with  the  IMF  could  pave the way for external debt restructuring.

 He  also  notes  that  it  would  be  beneficial  to  enter  financing  programs  with  the  IMF  and  the  World  Bank  at  interest  rates  of  around  3%,  compared  to  Venezuelan  debt  issued  at  rates  of  up  to 10%.

 He  highlights  the  low  cost  of  multilateral  debt  and  the  transparency  and  oversight  that  come  with IMF monitoring and technical assistance.

 “When  you  enter  into  an  agreement  with  the  IMF,  you  must  adopt  a  certain  level  of  discipline.  First,  you  must  comply  with  Article  IV  of  the  IMF,  which  requires  member  countries  to  undergo  a  review—not  supervision—of  their  macroeconomic  data,”  Guerra  explained.

Economist  Manuel  Sutherland,  for  his  part,  states  that  returning  to the  IMF  “opens  the  possibility  of  restoring  interaction  with  markets  and  bringing  in  certain  fresh  assets  immediately.”

 One  such  asset  is  Venezuela’s  Special  Drawing  Rights  (SDRs)  at  the  IMF,  valued  at  around $5 billion  .

 He  explains  that  this  amount  represents  nearly  half  of  the  country’s  international  reserves,  which had been non-liquid because they were held at the multilateral institution.

 Access  to  these  resources  is  not  conditional  on  a  program  and  becomes  available  once  the  country is recognized.

 Sutherland  adds  that  this  amount  is  roughly  equivalent  to  what  the  Central  Bank  of  Venezuela  injected  into  the  foreign  exchange  market  during  all  of  2024,  providing  support  to  the  exchange rate.

 With  this  strength,  the  state  could  have  more  liquidity  to  supply  foreign  currency  to  the  domestic  market  and  free  up  resources  from  current  natural  foreign  currency  providers  (oil  companies  such  as  Chevron  and  other  multinationals)  to  redirect  them  toward  social  investment.

 He  suggests  that  Venezuela  could  build  medium  and  large  outpatient  clinics  similar  to  “Salud  Chacao”  in  eastern  Caracas  to  handle  primary  care  and  minor  emergencies,  reserving  hospitals for more serious cases.

 It’s Not That Simple

 However, the issue is not as simple as “blowing and making bottles,” as the saying goes.

 IMF  Managing  Director  Kristalina  Georgieva  has  stated  that  achieving  macroeconomic  and  financial stability in Venezuela “will represent a major challenge.”

 Among  the  obstacles  are  persistent  triple-digit  inflation  and  the  severe  cumulative  economic  contraction the country has experienced.

“In  recent  years,  the  economy  has  contracted  by  two-thirds,  inflation stands  at  triple-digit  levels,  and  starting  from  these  levels  to  restore  macroeconomic  and  financial  stability  will  be  a very difficult path,” she said.

 “After  the  euphoria  comes  harsh  reality;  this  will  not  be  an  easy  process,”  she  added  in  mid-April,  noting  that  discussions  with  Delcy  Rodríguez  have  focused  on  gathering  data  needed to resume relations.

 What Next?

 The ball is now in the court of the Rodríguez administration.

 The  U.S.  Treasury  Department’s  Office  of  Foreign  Assets  Control  (OFAC)  has  eased  conditions  allowing  Venezuela  to  hire  consultants  and  advisory  services  in  the  United  States  to begin debt renegotiation.

 It  was  also  reported  that  Petróleos  de  Venezuela  (PDVSA)  hired  the  international  law  firm  White  &  Case  to  defend  its  interests  in  the  CITGO-related  process,  the  country’s  main  foreign asset.

 Such  a  move  would  not  have  been  possible  without  IMF  recognition  of  the  government  of  Delcy Rodríguez and the implicit “green light” from the White House.

 Now  the  question  remains:  what  is  Miraflores’  strategy  to  take  advantage  of  these  openings?  Will the results translate into real improvements for the population?

 We  don’t  have  crystal  balls  to  determine  that;  we  simply  keep  our  feet  flat  on  the  ground,  firmly  grounded  in  reality,  to  understand  the  country’s  political,  economic,  and  social  situation.

 The game continues.

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