The Daily Journal.- The North Atlantic basin is experiencing an unprecedented period of meteorological calm in the modern era. Despite entering the traditionally most active months of the year, a dominant climate factor has dramatically slowed the formation of major storms. Climate experts examining global weather records point to a direct explanation: the Atlantic has not experienced a similar atmospheric shutdown since 2015, a year that stands out as one of the least active hurricane seasons in the Caribbean Sea due to the influence of El Niño.
The 2015 precedent: A shielded Caribbean
Historically, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) acts as a thermal and dynamic shield for the Atlantic. In 2015, an exceptionally strong El Niño event completely altered global wind patterns. During that season, only two tropical cyclones crossed or affected the Caribbean region.
A massive increase in vertical wind shear largely accounted for this extremely low activity. El Niño generates strong, hostile air currents in the upper layers of the tropical atmosphere, effectively tearing developing storm systems apart before they can organize.
In 2015, this phenomenon weakened Hurricane Danny as it entered the eastern Caribbean and destroyed Tropical Storm Erika over Cuba, contributing to one of the lowest storm-impact statistics in recent decades.
Inameh confirms the impact of a “Super El Niño”
In Venezuela, the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (Inameh) has closely monitored this atmospheric evolution. The agency’s president, General Reidy Zambrano Méndez, confirmed in official statements that the warm phase of El Niño is fully active in the country.
The institute’s technical analyses reveal severe temperature anomalies exceeding 2.5°C in the equatorial Pacific, prompting experts to classify the current event as a “Super El Niño.”
Through its monitoring reports, Inameh has explained how this phenomenon directly affects regional weather patterns. The agency described the current hurricane season as “considerably below average.”
In addition to the strong wind shear generated by El Niño, the institute’s official statements identify dense layers of Saharan dust over the tropical Atlantic as another key factor. These dust concentrations limit moisture availability and prevent tropical waves from developing into major cyclones.
A meteorological parallel and a national warning
Current oceanographic conditions closely mirror the scenario that unfolded just over a decade ago. The rapid strengthening of El Niño introduces dry air and strong wind shear into the tropical Atlantic atmosphere, preventing major cyclones from developing.
These conditions explain the historic milestone of the Atlantic basin reaching September without recording its first fully developed hurricane, marking a record delay in the satellite era.
Despite this unusual lull in named storm formation, Venezuelan authorities continue to urge caution.
Inameh warned that tropical waves will continue moving through the region regularly until the hurricane season ends in November. Although most of these systems will not develop into cyclones, they will continue interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone, potentially triggering heavy rainfall and localized thunderstorms across Venezuela.
The lesson from 2015, which institutional reports continue to reinforce, is that reduced major cyclone activity offers only temporary relief.
Inameh forecasts indicate that the main challenge in the final quarter of the year will be a sustained rise in average temperatures and worsening dry conditions toward the end of the rainy season.
The agency therefore urges the agricultural, water, and electricity sectors to coordinate their efforts under official contingency plans.
