The Daily Journal.- The effects of the conflict in the Middle East are prompting countries and corporations “to rethink their energy investment strategies in response to growing concerns over energy security and the reliability of trade flows,” according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the 2026 edition of its annual World Energy Investment report.
The report warns that the supply shock resulting from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz “is changing risk perceptions and reinforcing measures toward greater diversification.”
This crisis comes only a few years after the global energy disruption caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, reinforcing what is expected to become a lasting shift in infrastructure financing priorities, particularly across the economies of Asia and the Middle East.
An Unprecedented Crisis
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned about the scale of the current situation and drew a direct parallel with the structural transformations of the last century:
“We are in the midst of the greatest energy security crisis the world has ever faced, and I believe this will reshape investment strategies globally, with parallels to the major transformations the energy world witnessed following the oil shocks of the 1970s.”
Birol explained that both producing and consuming nations have intensified efforts to reduce geopolitical vulnerability.
“We are already seeing intensified efforts, both from producer countries and consumers, to diversify trade routes and energy sources; on one hand through the development of new gas pipelines, oil pipelines, and other supply infrastructure and, on the other, by making greater use of locally available resources,” the executive stated.
This pursuit of greater autonomy ranges from the development of renewable energy and nuclear plants to a strategic return to coal, oil, and gas in specific scenarios.
2026 Outlook: Gas Boom and Oil Retrenchment
The IEA report projects that global energy investment will reach $3.4 trillion during 2026. The financial breakdown points to a strong shift toward energy transition and grid stability: around $2.2 trillion will be directed toward electricity infrastructure, storage, low-emission fuels, and renewable energy, while $1.2 trillion will remain invested in fossil fuels.
Despite rising commodity prices, spending on oil will register its third consecutive annual decline , falling below $500 billion due to uncertainty over the duration of high prices and supply chain constraints. By contrast, natural gas investment will rebound to $330 billion , reaching its highest level in a decade, driven by new LNG export terminals in Qatar and the United States.
Meanwhile, domestic energy security concerns will push coal investment to $180 billion — its highest level since 2012 — with nearly 70% driven by China’s supply expansion plans. Nevertheless, low-emission energy sources continue to dominate the global landscape, accounting for more than 70% of financing for power generation , with solar energy leading the sector through $365 billion in investment.
Financing Challenges and the Artificial Intelligence Factor
The international outlook is further complicated by rising capital costs caused by instability in financial markets, slowing decision-making and increasing long-term financing costs, disproportionately affecting emerging economies.
Finally, the report identifies a new high-impact variable shaping Western consumption patterns: the expansion of data centers and artificial intelligence. This technological demand has driven applications for new gas-fired power generation plants in the United States to their highest level in 25 years, absorbing turbine availability in the global market and influencing infrastructure deployment in other regions of the world.
