Dr. Juan Barreto, The Daily Journal Director for Venezuela and Latin America — It seems that matters have become increasingly complicated inside the White House: nothing personal, just business. A struggle has erupted over the division of the spoils that Venezuela now generates following the military operations that removed Nicolás Maduro and installed a transitional government aligned with U.S. interests.
Mauricio Claver-Carone and Richard Grenell have entered into open conflict. On one side, Mauricio Claver has stepped away—or someone has forced him to step away—from overseeing Venezuela’s economic affairs, even though he held no formal position. As he departed, he accused the Secretary of Energy of mishandling hydrocarbon production by favoring major U.S. multinational corporations while overlooking smaller companies that also have the capacity and potential to invest.
Donald Trump’s setbacks in the Middle East and his war against Iran have added another layer to this conflict. Iran is gaining ground, not because it has inflicted major casualties on the United States, but because it has managed to endure. As Iran continues to resist, U.S. military strength gradually wears down, with the country depleting its stock of Patriot missiles and medium-range munitions that it could need in other potential conflicts, such as in Europe or against China.
It appears that Trump’s options are narrowing with only three months remaining before the midterm elections, when voters will choose members of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Every poll released so far shows Democrats maintaining a lead of more than five percentage points over Republicans. If that trend continues, Trump could lose control of both chambers of Congress. His handling of Venezuela could also come under greater scrutiny through investigations, hearings, legislation, budget restrictions, and other congressional actions. Trump would no longer have a free hand, and Venezuela would become a permanent subject of political debate.
Trump has failed to achieve meaningful progress regarding Cuba, which continues to hold its ground. Venezuela remains the only apparently tangible success in his foreign policy. He says he enjoys an excellent relationship with Acting President Delcy Rodríguez. He says people are dancing in the streets, that everything is going well, and that Venezuela has received millions. Yet, on the streets, workers still earn less than half a dollar, and public discontent continues to prevail. The honeymoon that some sectors enjoyed with the United States—those who viewed the U.S. presence as a path to immediate economic progress or a better quality of life—has gradually faded, strengthening the public’s desire for change.
The media expectations surrounding the meeting between the two National Assemblies (2015 and 2025) have contributed little, if anything. Marco Rubio has stated that Venezuela’s political process will take time, perhaps several months. As a result, the escape valve—or gateway—that these two legislatures sought to create through their planned meetings has yet to produce any visible results.
Trump now finds himself in a labyrinth. Venezuela could shift from what once appeared to be a success into a resounding failure. Hopefully, whatever comes next will ultimately benefit the Venezuelan people.
