The Daily Journal.— The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) projects that Venezuela’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by approximately 6.5% by the end of 2026, supported by stronger oil activity and greater access to private capital, even as the country faces estimated inflation of 385%.
The multilateral organization presented the estimate in its Venezuela Macroeconomic Report for the first half of 2026.
Oil sector and fiscal revenue drive growth
According to the organization’s report, the Venezuelan economy maintained its expansion during the first six months of the year, driven by the performance of the hydrocarbons industry.
“Economic activity continued to grow during the semester, supported mainly by the recovery of the oil sector, whose production averaged 1.09 million barrels per day, stronger commercial activity and greater availability of foreign currency from exports,” the UNDP report states.
This momentum led to a “significant recovery” in fiscal revenues from both taxes and oil, as reforms to the legal framework governing hydrocarbons and mining opened the door to domestic and international private investment.
Inflationary pressure and structural challenges
Despite its GDP growth projections, the organization warns that the economy will continue to face imbalances in the prices of goods and services.
“This expansion continued to coexist with high inflation. Although the pace of price increases slowed during much of the semester, it accelerated again in June. The report projects inflation of nearly 385% by the end of 2026,” the document states.
The UNDP notes that, alongside inflation, factors such as exchange-rate volatility, electricity service failures and the accumulated loss of productive capacity will continue to constrain the sustainability of economic growth over the medium term.
