ECLAC estimates that Venezuela’s goods exports will reach $29.146 billion, while imports will decline 11% in value. The country’s terms of trade are expected to improve by 23%, the second-largest increase in Latin America and the Caribbean.
The Daily Journal — The value of Venezuela’s goods exports is expected to grow 17% in 2026, reaching $29.146 billion, driven by rising international prices for hydrocarbons and other commodities, according to projections from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in its report International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2026.
The organization forecasts that a 28% increase in export prices will drive the growth in export value, offsetting an 11% decline in export volumes. These estimates point to higher export revenues without a corresponding increase in the quantities of goods sold abroad.
Meanwhile, the value of Venezuela’s goods imports is expected to decline 11% in 2026, reaching $15.940 billion. ECLAC projects a 4% increase in import prices and a 15% decrease in import volumes.
These trends would widen the country’s merchandise trade surplus. According to the report, the difference between exports and imports would rise from $7.394 billion in 2025 to $13.206 billion in 2026, representing a 78.6% increase.
Trade rebounds during the first half of the year
The annual projections follow a significant recovery in trade flows during the first half of 2026. Venezuela’s goods exports increased 60% year over year between January and June, compared with a 27% contraction during the same period in 2025.
Imports also grew in the first half of the year, rising 40% year over year after declining 35% during the first six months of the previous year.
The performance of both trade flows reflects an expansion in foreign trade value during the period. However, forecasts for the end of 2026 point to different trends: exports would maintain nominal growth, while imports would decline compared with the previous year.
Terms of trade expected to improve by 23%
According to ECLAC, Venezuela is expected to record a 23% improvement in its terms of trade in 2026. This indicator measures the relationship between the prices of goods a country exports and those it imports, providing insight into changes in the external purchasing power that exports generate.
The projected increase would place Venezuela among the countries with the largest gains in the region, second only to Peru, where ECLAC expects a 26% improvement. Rising international prices for hydrocarbons and other commodities would drive this result.
An improvement in terms of trade does not necessarily indicate higher production or export volumes. In Venezuela’s case, ECLAC’s estimates specifically point to a combination of higher export prices and lower quantities of goods sold abroad.
Exports to exceed 2024 levels
The report’s nominal figures show that Venezuela’s goods exports reached $25.071 billion in 2024 before declining slightly to $24.911 billion in 2025. For 2026, ECLAC projects exports of $29.146 billion, representing a 17% increase over the previous year.
Meanwhile, imports rose from $17.151 billion in 2024 to $17.517 billion in 2025. The forecast for 2026 anticipates a decline to $15.940 billion.
If these projections materialize, Venezuela would end 2026 with goods exports exceeding the previous two years and lower nominal import spending. However, the projected 15% decline in import volumes indicates that price fluctuations alone would not account for the reduction.
