The organization forecasts a 23% increase for Venezuela, the second-highest in Latin America and the Caribbean, amid rising international commodity and hydrocarbon prices.
The Daily Journal — Venezuela will record a 23% improvement in its terms of trade in 2026, one of the largest increases in Latin America and the Caribbean, driven by export price trends, according to projections from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
The projected increase places Venezuela second in the region, behind Peru, which is expected to register a 26% rise. Bolivia follows with 18%, Jamaica with 16%, Trinidad and Tobago with 15%, and Guyana with 14%.
Terms of trade measure the relationship between the prices of goods a country exports and those of the products it imports. An improvement in this indicator means a country’s exports can purchase more imported goods, strengthening the economy’s international purchasing power.
ECLAC forecasts a 6% increase in terms of trade across Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026. Export prices are expected to rise faster than import prices, benefiting the region’s international trade revenues.
The role of commodities
The report identifies South America as the main beneficiary of the commodity price cycle, with export value projected to rise 17%. Higher prices would account for 15 percentage points of that growth, while export volumes would rise by 2%.
“This composition reflects the subregion’s high degree of specialization in natural resources and commodities, whose prices have experienced widespread increases,” the organization noted.
For Venezuela, whose export portfolio relies heavily on hydrocarbons, the projected improvement points to a more favorable relative price environment for international trade.
Differences among regional economies
The projections reveal uneven trends across Latin American and Caribbean economies. In addition to Peru and Venezuela, Bolivia, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Guyana stand out, while several other economies are expected to record more moderate gains.
Countries with positive projections include Nicaragua, Chile, and Colombia, each with an 11% increase; Argentina, with 9%; and Brazil, with 7%. Mexico is expected to see a 1% improvement.
In contrast, ECLAC forecasts a 4% deterioration in terms of trade for Honduras and a 1% deterioration each for Haiti and Barbados.
