Óscar Reyes Matute— A senior U.S. official leaked to The NY Times (under anonymity and via telephone) the full text of the agreement to cease hostilities, open the Strait of Hormuz, and initiate nuclear talks. Journalists from the newspaper annotated this Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, introducing underlying analyses.
Memorandum clauses and expert analysis
Paragraph 1: End of military operations
The U.S., Iran, and their allies declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. They commit, from now on, not to initiate wars, to refrain from threatening or using force, and to guarantee Lebanon’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. The final agreement will confirm this.
Analysis (Anton Troianovski): Including Lebanon is a notable rejection by the U.S. of Israel’s concerns regarding Hezbollah. Israel has indicated that it does not feel bound by this agreement. The language will allow Iran to pressure Trump over future Israeli attacks or regarding the “security zone” occupied by Israel in southern Lebanon.
Paragraph 2: Sovereignty and interference
Both countries commit to respecting each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refraining from interfering in internal affairs.
Analysis (Luke Broadwater): This seems like a standard declaration, but both have violently meddled in each other’s affairs. Trump openly urged protesters to overthrow the Iranian regime, and Iranian agents have been accused of attempting to assassinate the U.S. President.
Paragraph 3: Deadline for the final agreement
They commit to negotiating and reaching a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
Analysis (Luke Broadwater): A very short deadline. U.S. officials discreetly acknowledge that it might not be achievable compared to previous negotiations. The ambitious timeline would place the agreement before the midterm elections in the U.S., benefiting Trump amid a potential decline in his domestic popularity.
Paragraph 4: Lifting of the naval blockade and withdrawal of forces
Immediately upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the U.S. will begin lifting the naval blockade and any obstacles imposed on Iran, ending them completely within 30 days. Maritime traffic will be proportional to the pre-war traffic that Iran restores. The U.S. further commits to withdrawing its forces from the vicinity of Iran within 30 days after the signing of the final agreement.
Analysis (David E. Sanger): By lifting the blockade, the U.S. allows Iran to resume exports (mostly to China) and receive goods, alleviating its immediate economic crisis—a crucial victory for Tehran. However, the U.S. will lose a key leverage point in the nuclear negotiations; Iran will have every incentive to stand firm and allow the 60-day negotiation to extend for months or years.
Paragraph 5: Safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz
Iran will guarantee the safe and free passage of commercial vessels for 60 days from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. Commercial vessel traffic will begin immediately and will be fully established within 30 days to remove technical and military obstacles and perform mine clearance by Iran. Iran will hold dialogues with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in talks with other Persian Gulf coastal states, in accordance with applicable international law.
Analysis (David E. Sanger): The key phrase here is “at no cost for 60 days.” After that, Iran could impose tariffs—something unprecedented before the war. This would end freedom of transit and violate a key principle outlined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio: that commerce return to pre-war conditions.
Paragraph 6: Reconstruction fund for Iran
The U.S., along with regional partners, commits to developing a definitive, agreed-upon plan with a minimum budget of 300 billion U.S. dollars for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran. The implementation mechanism will be defined in a final agreement within 60 days. The U.S. will grant all necessary licenses, waivers, and permits for the relevant financial transactions.
Analysis (Anton Troianovski): On Wednesday, Trump insisted that the U.S. would not invest in this potential $ 300 billion fund, but left open the possibility that Persian Gulf states would provide the money. This is a sensitive political issue for Trump, given his constant criticism of Barack Obama for sending 1.7 billion dollars in cash to Iran as part of the 2015 nuclear deal from which Trump withdrew.
Paragraph 7: Timeline for lifting sanctions
The U.S. commits to lifting all types of sanctions against Iran, including UN Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all primary and secondary unilateral U.S. sanctions, under a timeline agreed upon as part of the final agreement. Both parties recognize the crucial importance of this and intend to address it immediately.
Analysis (Michael Crowley): Relieving the crushing economic sanctions might be the only thing that persuades Iran to relinquish its nuclear program, which was the basis of the 2015 nuclear deal. However, those limits were restricted to 15 years, and Trump claims he wants much longer or even permanent restrictions. The major challenge ahead will be determining the “agreed timeline” and establishing which sanctions the U.S. will lift and when; this will likely involve a gradual process in which both sides, distrustful of each other, take alternating incremental steps.
Paragraph 8: Nuclear program and enriched material
Iran reaffirms that it will not acquire or develop nuclear weapons. They agree to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material through a mutually agreed-upon mechanism, in accordance with the timeline in paragraph 7; the minimum methodology will be in situ blunting under IAEA supervision. They also agreed to debate enrichment and Iran’s nuclear needs based on the legal framework of the final agreement.
Analysis (David E. Sanger): This is the only paragraph dealing directly with the nuclear program—the primary cause of the war—and is therefore perhaps the most important; yet it is vague on the main points of contention. As the word “reaffirms” suggests, there is nothing new in Iran’s promise not to seek nuclear weapons (as set out in the 1970 Non-Proliferation Treaty and the 2015 agreement). The text requires Iran to “downblend” its roughly 11 tons of enriched nuclear material, including 440 kg (970 pounds) enriched to 60%, just below weapons-grade. It does not require Iran to surrender the material and ship it abroad; Iran has resisted demands to surrender the stockpile, though it did so in 2015 when it shipped 97% to Russia. This leaves key questions unresolved: whether Iran will retain the material, close its main facilities, or be allowed to enrich new material (or suspend it for 13 to 20 years). In a phone interview on Sunday, Trump said Iran would agree to reinforce inspections, but this must be negotiated. The reference to “Iran’s nuclear needs” alludes to Iran’s insistence on maintaining its nuclear capacity for peaceful energy generation, preserving its potential.
Paragraph 9: Maintaining the Status Quo
Pending the final agreement, the status quo will be maintained: Iran will maintain the current state of its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose new sanctions or deploy additional forces to the region.
Analysis (Michael Crowley): This clause is fundamental to establishing a clear baseline for negotiations. It limits the avenues for seeking coercive advantages. For Iran, maintaining the status quo equates to leaving its bombed nuclear facilities in ruins and its uranium buried under the rubble of airstrikes.
Paragraph 10: Immediate oil waivers
Immediately upon signing and until sanctions are lifted, the U.S. Treasury Department will grant waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products, as well as all associated services (banking, insurance, shipping, etc.).
Analysis (Michael Crowley): This has raised alarms among hardliners; they question why Trump would ease oil sanctions as a reward for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. would be “giving up its strongest economic leverage before the hardest part of the negotiation even begins,” wrote Miad Maleki, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Paragraph 11: Release of frozen assets
The U.S. commits to making available to the public the frozen or restricted funds of Iran (24 billion dollars or more) “upon implementation of this Memorandum.” Procedures will be mutually agreed during negotiations. Funds will be released to the final beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of Iran. The U.S. commits to issuing all necessary licenses.
Analysis (David E. Sanger): This suggests that money could flow very soon, before the final agreement is reached. Allowing release to “any final beneficiary” designated by the Central Bank is crucial: it could be interpreted as meaning that military or intelligence officials, or entities on terrorist/sanctioned lists, could receive the funds.
Paragraph 12: Oversight mechanism
They agree to establish an executive mechanism to oversee the successful implementation of the Memorandum and future compliance with the final agreement.
Analysis (Luke Broadwater): Defining enforcement is vital. A U.S. official stated that Americans want to ensure all Iranian commitments are verifiable.
Paragraph 13: Negotiation dynamics
Following the signing and implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11, negotiations on the final agreement will begin, focusing exclusively on the remaining paragraphs.
Analysis (Luke Broadwater): This indicates the solidity/predictability of the various parts of the agreement and underscores that the nuclear program will be the primary focus of future negotiations.
Paragraph 14: International ratification
The final agreement will be ratified through a binding UN Security Council resolution.
Analysis (Anton Troianovski and David E. Sanger): The future agreement would have UN approval (like Trump’s Gaza deal last year). Due to the deep nuclear chasm, analysts doubt this day will ever come. The text does not mention Trump’s responsibility to submit the final agreement to a vote in the U.S. Congress.
NOTA BENE
The reader should recall, as stated in our previous report, that this agreement is not binding for Israel.
Benjamin Netanyahu stated in his latest public address that Iran will never possess nuclear weapons—with or without an agreement—and that Israel maintains the legitimate right to destroy this existential threat to the nation whenever it deems appropriate.
We will continue to provide analysis.
