Dr. Juan Barreto, Director of The Daily Journal for Venezuela and Latin America.
Curly in his labyrinth. Could hell be starting to open beneath Marco Rubio’s feet? Where do I get this from? Well, the midterm elections are approaching, and all the polls seem to indicate that Democrats will prevail over Republicans. Some polls even give Democrats a five- to seven-point advantage in almost every electoral district.
Republicans could lose the House of Representatives and the Senate. There are different scenarios. If they lose only the House, there will be investigations, hearings, noise, and obstruction surrounding the foreign policy of Trump and Marco Rubio; and Marco Rubio will have to navigate turbulent waters. If they also lose the Senate, things could get even worse, because an impeachment against President Donald Trump could even move forward.
Now, the question is: who would bear responsibility for an electoral defeat? Would Donald Trump accept it? Would he say, “We lost the elections because my administration has worn down public support”? Or, from his imperial position, would he decide that another member of his cabinet bears responsibility? Who would he point to? His chosen successor, as he himself described him this week, Vice President Vance? The Secretary of War, who despite his efforts remains a secondary figure? Or Marco Rubio, who has directed foreign policy and also has presidential aspirations?
Marco Rubio has failed in Iran, an Iran that resists and wears down U.S. military capabilities. He has made little progress toward resolving the Cuba issue in favor of the United States. And the situation in Venezuela appears more or less stalled, with no clear path toward a solution as the end of the year approaches.
What would happen under an even more complicated scenario: Republicans lose across the country but win Florida, a state where the pendulum no longer swings and where Republicans have prevailed with 20 of the 28 representatives and hold the Senate seat once occupied by Marco Rubio, which now comes up for election? If Republicans win Florida, who won? DeSantis, who controls the Republican political machinery? Donald Trump, who lives in Miami, at Mar-a-Lago? Or Marco Rubio? And if Marco Rubio claims that victory as his own, wouldn’t he be indirectly and tangentially confronting Donald Trump?
In colonial Venezuela, there was a figure: a young domestic servant who accompanied the matron, the lady of the house, to church on Sundays. After indulging during the weekend festivities, the matron would arrive carrying some extra weight and would often suffer from stomach troubles that manifested themselves as flatulence.
So, the lady of the house would sit in church and, in the middle of the liturgical ceremony, let out a foul smell. Who would people blame? Who would they accuse of such public disrespect? The “apaga peo’,” that Venezuelan figure, the timid young woman serving her mistress who had to take the blame for something that was not hers.
Could this be the role to which Marco Rubio ultimately finds himself reduced? We shall see. Marco still has many cards on the table; perhaps accelerating Venezuela’s political transition process is one of them.
