Julio A. López.— Venezuela could increase its oil production to approximately 2.58 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2035 under a growth scenario that combines the recovery of existing fields with the development of new projects in the Orinoco Belt, according to a new projection by Rystad Energy.
The energy intelligence firm estimates a trajectory that would take Venezuelan production to around 1.6 million b/d by 2028 and 1.8 million b/d by 2030, before accelerating during the first half of the next decade. However, the scenario depends on effective capital mobilization, the deployment of drilling rigs, the recovery of oilfield services, and infrastructure expansion.
The 2.58 million b/d forecast represents a significant shift from previous assessments. At the beginning of 2026, Rystad estimated that Venezuela would need approximately US$183 billion in Capex between 2026 and 2040 to reach 3 million b/d by 2040. The new assessment factors in much broader participation from international companies and new contracts.
Who is Rystad Energy and why does its analysis carry weight in the industry?
Rystad Energy is a Norwegian energy research and intelligence firm founded in 2004 by Jarand Rystad and headquartered in Oslo. Today, it is Norway’s largest independent energy consultancy and one of the most frequently cited firms worldwide on oil, gas, and the energy transition. With nearly 900 employees across 31 offices worldwide, Rystad uses a bottom-up approach: it builds its estimates asset by asset and field by field rather than starting with macroeconomic projections. This methodology has earned the firm recognition among governments, banks, oil operators and multilateral organizations as a source of verified data with a transparent methodology.
The firm points to several notable historical calls, including its 2014 projection — five years in advance — of the growth trajectory of U.S. shale. Its analysis also served as a reference during periods of intense volatility, including the pandemic, Russia’s war against Ukraine and the recent conflict between the United States and Iran. Because Rystad operates independently of governments, producers and trading companies, industry observers regard its estimates of sensitive assets — such as NABEP’s operations in Venezuela — as a relevant counterpoint to figures provided by the interested parties themselves.
Over the next several years, growth would come primarily from so-called brownfields: fields that already produce oil and where operators can quickly increase volumes by rehabilitating facilities, reactivating wells and carrying out infill drilling.
Rystad identifies NABEP’s portfolio in Lake Maracaibo, Chevron’s Petropiar and Petroboscán, Eni’s Corocoro and GeoPark’s BARE block among the main assets for this initial phase.
Starting in the 2030s, growth sources would begin to shift. Greenfield projects, which require new development and infrastructure, would become increasingly important.
Rystad identifies Chevron’s Ayacucho 8, Eni’s Junín 5 and NABEP’s new blocks in the Orinoco Belt as key pillars of this phase. Under the consultancy’s modeled scenario, brownfield and greenfield projects would contribute nearly equal shares of the new barrels added by 2035.
The projection also factors in growing international participation. Chevron added Carabobo-1 and Carabobo-2-Sur-A and outlined investments exceeding US$7 billion over five years; Eni took exclusive operational control of Junín 5 under a 25-year production-sharing agreement; Repsol regained operational control of Petroquiriquire; and Shell returned through agreements for Carito and Pirital. Rystad also identifies GeoPark, Hunt Oil and Fluxus among the new participants.
The 2.58 million b/d scenario for 2035, therefore, does not constitute an unconditional forecast. It represents the potential that Rystad considers achievable if the announced investments materialize and Venezuela simultaneously rebuilds its drilling, oilfield services and infrastructure capacity.
The scale of the challenge is considerable, but so is the implied growth: reaching 2.58 million b/d would return Venezuela to a level of oil production the country has not recorded in decades.
