The Daily Journal.— Opposition Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face each other in Brazil’s presidential runoff scheduled for October 25, after election officials confirmed the results of Sunday’s vote with 99.99% of ballots counted.
According to consolidated data from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE), former President Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son, representing the Liberal Party (PL), led the vote count with 47.03% of ballots, or more than 56 million votes. Lula, leader of the Workers’ Party (PT), is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term at age 80 and received 45.16%, or about 53.8 million votes. None of the other ten candidates came close to securing a place in the runoff.
Lula’s performance marked a setback compared with the first round of the 2022 election, as he lost nearly 3.5 million voters from the 48.4% he received then. In contrast, Flávio Bolsonaro secured roughly 2.3 million more votes than the incumbent president and surpassed his father’s 2022 tally by five million votes. A consolidation of strategic voting among conservatives and an abstention rate of 21.08%, equivalent to 33.5 million voters, helped drive his performance.
“Today’s results consolidate the right across all levels of politics, which should greatly encourage Bolsonaro’s supporters and help them maintain Flávio’s lead over Lula in the runoff,” said political scientist Thais Pavez, director of consulting firm Estrategia Latina.
Political analyst Alberto Almeida, meanwhile, said that “Brazil has shifted to the right and consolidated that shift this year. These four years of Lula have been a parenthesis,” attributing the government’s decline in support to falling approval ratings amid the high cost of living and household debt levels.
The PL’s gains also extended to the legislative and regional elections held at the same time. The party doubled its representation in the Senate, becoming the largest force with 28 of the chamber’s 81 seats — roughly one-third of the upper house — and won five governorships in the first round, compared with three for the PT. In Minas Gerais, widely considered Brazil’s key swing state, Bolsonaro defeated Lula by 48.2% to 43.3%.
After officials released the results, minor candidates’ refusal to endorse either finalist complicated the battle for alliances ahead of the runoff.
Writer and psychiatrist Augusto Cury, the Avante candidate who finished third with 2.89% of the vote, ruled out taking a position: “I prefer to remain completely silent regarding those who will be in the second round, and I want to make it clear that no one is authorized, in my name, to ask for votes or say that they will support either of those two candidates.” He also announced his decision to withdraw from political activity.
Renan Santos of Missão, who finished fourth with 2.24%, took a similar position: “I will not campaign for either candidate, nor will I campaign for a null vote.”
Among the remaining contenders, former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), who received 2.18%, said he would consult his party leadership before taking a position based on “coherence.” Former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema (Novo), who received 0.27%, reaffirmed his opposition to the governing party: “Wherever the PT is, Novo and I will be on the other side.”
The campaign ahead of the October 25 runoff will begin amid institutional polarization, with judicial investigations involving members of the Supreme Court — including Justice Alexandre de Moraes —, PT allegations of foreign interference, and the situation surrounding Jair Bolsonaro, who remains under house arrest following his 2022 conviction.
With information from EFE
